Archive for the ‘I Took Statistics Twice In College’ Category

Another Road Win Without A Long Ball

July 5, 2011

The Mets won their 24th road game of the season tonight in LA by a score of 5-2. The Mets now trail only Atlanta for most road wins in the National League. They also won again without the benefit of the long ball. So, curiosity got to me. How and why are they so much better away from Citi Field?

  • The Mets have scored 212 runs away from Citi Field in 44 games; an average of 4.8/game. At home the Mets have scored 168 runs in 41 games, an average of 4.1/game. If this discrepancy is at all due to Citi Field’s dimensions, it might be more psychological than anything. The Mets have hit only two more home runs on the road than at home, and have played three more games away from Citi Field. So, there is no evidence that the Mets are a better home run hitting team on the road. All that is certain is that the Mets score more runs away from Citi Field.
  • The Mets hit four doubles tonight (Pagan twice, Beltran and Murphy). However, this is not a road trend either. The Mets came into tonight with an identical number of doubles at home and on the road. Including tonight, they now have 77 on the road in 44 games compared to 73 at home in 41 games. Again, no difference.
  • The Mets also have a slightly higher OBP at home, and a slightly higher batting average away.  No real discrepancy.
  • The Mets hit .265 with RISP on the road, compared to .263 at home. Still not enough of a difference to make any sense of this for me.
  • The Mets have stolen 10 more bases on the road than at home. Could this account for some of the difference? Or, perhaps their outs are simply more productive on the road for some reason?
  • Lastly, the Mets staff ERA is far better at home than it is away. So, the pitching isn’t the reason why the Mets are 24-20 on the road.

Conclusion:

Inconclusive. I’m not a stats guy and it’s probably easy to tell. For instance, I get what BABIP is, but honestly, I don’t care for it. I like “outdated” baseball statistics like OBP and RBI. So, if anyone wants to lecture me Bill James style in the comments section, be my guest.

I go largely on instinct. Tonight the Mets were hitless through five innings and I just about wrote ‘em off. Obviously my gut instinct was wrong for the second day in a row. I guess I’ve lost my way.

Perhaps the Mets are just a team that has a lot of heart which sometimes compensates for a lack of talent top to bottom. Perhaps they’re more comfortable on the road for whatever reason.

Wild Card Update

Atlanta 50 36 76
Arizona 46 40 4.0 76
Milwaukee 45 41 5.0 76
Pittsburgh 44 41 5.5 77
New York 43 42 6.5 77

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